Presidential election odds 2024: Forecaster who predicted a Harris win issues a dramatic update

A data model that had predicted Kamala Harris would win in a landslide now says Donald Trump will win the election.

Forecaster Thomas Miller uses a model that relies on betting markets rather than polls.

The model had indicated the Democrat would get more than 400 votes in the Electoral College.

But it now suggests Trump could win clearly with 345 Electoral College votes.

The 2024 race for the presidency has gone from toss-up to Republican landslide, to toss-up, to a possible Democratic landslide, to toss-up, and now to a possible Republican landslide.

Could prediction markets and associated election forecasts turn again with less than two weeks before the close of voting on November 5? Yes. We expect to see increased trading and high volatility in the final week of the race.

The impact of rising prices will have the most impact on the results in Pennsylvania in the presidential race, an economist has predicted.

Bernard Yaros, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said inflation could be decisive in the state that could ultimately decide the election.

His research finds that every one percentage point increase in inflation before a presidential election is linked to tens of thousands of Pennsylvanians voting against the incumbent.

‘Lower-income people devote more of their income to essentials — they will react more negatively’ to inflation shocks, Yaros told CBS MoneyWatch.

Pennsylvania ‘also has a slightly older demographic, so people on fixed incomes are going to feel the bite from high inflation.’

Harris and Trump are in a statistical dead heat in Pennsylvania, according to the latest polls.

Prices have jumped 22 percent between January 2020 and September of this year.

It means Pennsylvania’s residents are having to shell out more for everyday items like food, gas and insurance.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said President Joe Biden will attend the inauguration ceremony in January no matter who wins the presidential election.

‘This president believes in the peaceful transfer of power, and that’s what you’re going to see this president do,’ she said during her briefing.

‘It’s not about him. It’s about the American people. That’s what the American people need to see, regardless of who wins.’

The 2025 presidential inauguration will take place on Monday, January 20, 2025, on the West Front of the United States Capitol.

Preparations have already begun. The inauguration platform is being built at the Capitol (above) and a viewing stand is being constructed in front of the White House.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

Karine Jean-Pierre spent most of her press briefing cleaning up after President Joe Biden’s ‘garbage’ comment.

‘He does not view Trump supporters or anybody who supports Trump as garbage. That is not what he views. The President has said this for more than three years now,’ the White House press secretary said.

She noted Biden posted a tweet clarifying his comments because he was afraid he was ‘going to be taken out of context.’

‘The President wanted to clarify because he understood that what he may have said was …. was going to be taken out of context. So he wanted to be very, very clear about what he was trying to say,’ she said.

Biden set off a firestorm – and overshadowed Kamala Harris’ speech on the National Mall – when, on a call with Latino supporters, he referred to comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s comment that Puerto Rico is a ‘floating island of garbage’ and appeared to expand it to all Trump supporters.

‘The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters,’ he said.

But the White House said Biden was referring to a single supporter – Hinchcliffe – and, in the official White House transcript, the word is transcribed as ‘supporter’s.’

Jean-Pierre said the White House was not defending the president but clarifying his comments.

‘Nobody’s defending the President. This is the President himself, wanting to clarify what he said. He wanted to make sure that it was not taken out of context,’ she said.

The results appeared on the ticker along the bottom of the screen during a broadcast of the Formula 1 Mexico Grand Prix by ABC local affiliate WNEP-TV on Sunday.

It instantly prompted claims of election rigging on social media, with one person tweeting: ‘The cheat is on.’

On Tuesday, the Emmy Award-winning actress, 52, shared a selfie that showed her wearing an ‘I Voted’ sticker as she sat in the passenger seat next to her boyfriend,  Michael Devin, who sported a red ‘Make America Great Again’ baseball cap.

‘Guess who we voted for?’ she asked. ‘We voted for ourselves. We the people. You n me with the justice league in place to drain the fckn neocon/ corporate swamp.’

Jon Michael Raasch, Political Reporter for DailyMail.com

‘You can’t lead America if you don’t love Americans,’ Donald Trump slammed Kamla Harris.

‘She never called Border Patrol in four years,’ he continued on about her immigration policies that he believes enabled 21 million migrants into the U.S. However, the vice president has visited the border twice since being in office.

Further Republicans in Congress say that figure is closer to 11 million encounters, though they admit there are far more unaccounted for.

Donald Trump complained to a rally crowd in Rocky Mount, North Carolina about how rival Kamala Haris centered much of her speech at the Elipse in Washington around him.

‘All she talked about was Donald Trump,’ Trump said.

Then he played a supercut video stringing together a series of short clips where she said ‘Donald Trump.’

Harris invoked Trump’s name 24 times in her speech, where he called him a ‘petty tyrant’ and contrasted her own ‘to-do’ list with what she said was his ‘enemies list.’

Jon Michael Raasch, Political Reporter for DailyMail.com

Trump clapped back at President Joe Biden’s recent comments calling supporters of the ex-president ‘garbage.’

‘My supporters are far higher quality than cooked Joe,’ Trump said during his rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina.

He continued: ‘They’ve treated you like garbage because they’re grossly incompetent people.’

Biden’s comment was quickly disavowed by Kamala Harris but not before setting off a firestorm of negative headlines akin to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 comment calling the same Trump supporters ‘deplorables.’

Jon Michael Raasch, Political Reporter for DailyMail.com

Cue Lee Greenwood’s ‘God Bless the USA,’ Donald Trump is taking the stage at his rally in Rocky Mountain, North Carolina.

With six days remaining until Election Day, the ex-president is starting his day in the swing state.

The Republican candidate has hit the Tar Heel State several times over the last week, stopping in nearby Greenville and then hours away in Greensboro days later.

Recently it appears Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and her campaign have seen North Carolina as a lost cause and reportedly canceling some ads set to run there.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ rally was briefly interrupted by a man shouting in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Her supporters started to chant ‘Kamala’ as video of the crowd showed a lone man being escorted out of the event.

‘This is the thing because we know we’re actually fighting for our democracy,’ Harris said.

‘And unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy,’ she continued. ‘He wants to put them in jail. I’ll give them a seat at the table.’

She also reiterated her pledge to be a president for ‘all Americans’ before continuing where she left off in her speech.

NASA astronaut Buzz Aldrin endorsed Donald Trump for President on Wednesday, citing his approval of the former president’s effort to revive space exploration.

The pilot of NASA’s Apollo 11 lunar lander, Aldrin walked on the moon and has advocated for space exploration ever since.

‘Over the years, I have seen our government’s approach to space wax and wane, a fluctuating dynamic that has disappointed me from time to time,’ he wrote in a statement. ‘But under the first Trump Administration, I was impressed to see how human space exploration was elevated, made a policy of high importance again.’

President Joe Biden ignored questions on his garbage comment when he held a meeting in the Oval Office with the president of Cyprus.

The president didn’t acknowledge reporters’ inquiries about his verbal flub during the short spray in the Oval.

Biden set off a firestorm on Tuesday night, when, on a call with Latino supporters, he referred to comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s comment that Puerto Rico is a ‘floating island of garbage’ and appeared to expand it to all Trump supporters.

‘The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters,’ he said.

But the White House said Biden was referring to a single supporter – Hinchcliffe – and, in the official White House transcript, the word is transcribed as ‘supporter’s.’

Sarah Ewall-Wice, Senior U.S. Political Reporter:

Vice President Kamala Harris is rallying support in Raleigh, North Carolina where she was welcomed by thunderous applause.

‘Raleigh, are we ready to do this? Are we ready to vote? Are we ready to win?’ Harris says after taking the stage.

She is urging people in North Carolina to get out and vote early.

‘Make no mistake, we will win,’ Harris said. ‘Because when you know what you stand for, you know what to fight for.’

Jill Biden kicked off Halloween at the White House by reading ‘Ten Spooky Pumpkins’ to little trick-or-treaters.

The Bidens open the South Lawn for the holiday. Games are available and various government agencies set up booths with goodies for the kiddos.

President Joe Biden and Jill Biden will hand out candy later this evening.

Sarah Ewall-Wice, Senior U.S. Political Reporter:

Vice President Kamala Harris is set to take the stage shortly in Raleigh, North Carolina for a rally.

The Democratic Governor of North Carolina Roy Cooper has already been out warming up the crowd.

It’s her first of three battleground state events today.

The vice president’s motorcade is already at the Coastal Credit Union Music Park at Walnut Creek where supporters are gathered for the event.

More than 3.3 million people have already voted early in the state.

Michelle Obama sounded an ominous warning on Tuesday night, telling thousands in Atlanta that ‘disillusionment and apathy’ could determine the results of the presidential election.

She called on Americans to ‘stop the spiral of disillusionment and apathy. It’s our job to show folks that two things can be true at once: that it is possible to be outraged by the slow pace of progress and be committed to your own pursuit of that progress.’

The former first lady was in Atlanta as part of her nonprofit When We All Vote, which encourages voting registration. Many in her audience were young students from Atlanta’s historically black colleges and universities.

‘It is possible to be disheartened by what’s happening and still choose to do everything in your power to make it better, to speak out, to organize, to donate and yes, vote,’ she reminded the crowd.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ step-daughter Ella Emhoff shared a picture of her voting sticker in her Instagram stories after voting early in the 2024 election.

With the divisive nature of politics these days, many people are not keen to share who they are voting for in 2024, but new polling shows just who is the least likely to tell the truth about their vote.

Overall, twenty-three percent of voters said they have lied about who they are voting for to close family or friends, according to a new Axios Vibes survey conducted by The Harris Poll.

But when it comes to lying about their vote – Gen Z is the most likely.

Former President Donald Trump’s campaign announced Wednesday morning that they had filed a lawsuit against Bucks County, Pennsylvania, accusing them of ‘voter suppression.’

Voters said they were turned away from the Bucks County elections office as early as 2:30 PM, even though the Pennsylvania Department of State said that if they were in line by 5:00 PM, they had the right to apply for a mail-in ballot.

‘This is a direct violation of Pennsylvanians’ rights to cast their ballot – and all voters have a right to STAY in line,’ the campaign announced in a statement.

‘This is voter suppression from the left,’ the message from the campaign continued. ‘We will fight for every legal vote in Pennsylvania. Go vote, and stay in line!’

The county later Wednesday granted an extension allowing early voting to continue until 5 p.m. on Friday.

President Joe Biden’s son Hunter expressed his fear of the ‘end of America’ if former President Donald Trump is elected president again.

‘A second Donald Trump presidency is potentially the end of America as we’ve known it,’ the president’s son said to Politico Wednesday.

He said that his greatest worry was ‘losing our democracy to a fascist minority’ suggesting that he feared the verdict of the electoral college on who should be elected president.

Hunter Biden also accused Trump of ‘lies, fear-mongering and disinformation.’

‘It’s easier to scare people with lies than educate them with the truth. It’s faster. It sticks to your marrow,’ he said.

Hunter did not talk about former President Donald Trump’s suggestion that he would consider pardoning him, if elected president.

‘I wouldn’t take it off the books,’ Trump said in an interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt last week.

Biden was found guilty in a federal gun trial of three felonies and in September, he pleaded guilty to federal tax charges.

Arnold Schwarzenegger announced he will be voting for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 presidential election.

The former Republican governor of California shared his shock endorsement on X Tuesday.

‘I don’t really do endorsements. I’m not shy about sharing my views, but I hate politics and don’t trust most politicians,’ the actor wrote.

Despite that, the Terminator star, 77, said that its time for the country ‘to move forward,’ and that ‘the only way to do that is with Harris and Walz.’

‘We need to close the door on this chapter of American history, and I know that former President Trump won’t do that,’ Schwarzenegger said.

‘He will divide, he will insult, he will find new ways to be more un-American than he already has been, and we, the people, will get nothing but more anger.’

Democrats were thrown onto cleanup duty after President Joe Biden’s damaging ‘garbage’ comment, with prominent Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro offering no support or explanation for Biden’s words and Kamala Harris keeping her distance.

Shapiro got asked about Biden’s remark just hours after the president uttered it on a zoom fundraising call that undermined Vice President Kamala’s message about reaching out to Republicans just as she was delivering it to thousands of fans outside the White House.

‘I had not heard that until now, Kaitlan, so I’m kind of giving you my fresh reaction to it,’ Shapiro told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins Tuesday evening when asked about it.

‘I would never insult the good people of Pennsylvania or any Americans even if they chose to support a candidate that I didn’t support,’ he said, effectively throwing Biden under the bus for the flub.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

Kamala Harris said she talked to President Joe Biden on Tuesday night but they didn’t discuss his controversial ‘garbage’ comment.

‘He called me last night but this didn’t come up,’ she told reporters traveling with her.

She defended Biden, saying he clarified his comment about Donald Trump’s supporters, but added that she ‘disagrees’ with criticism of the MAGA voter base.

‘He clarified his comments but let me be clear: I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for,’ she said.

‘I will be a president for all Americans whether you vote for me or not. I have that responsibility and that’s the kind of work I’ve done my entire career and I take it very seriously.’

Biden set off a firestorm – and overshadowed Harris’ speech on the National Mall – when, on a call with Latino supporters, he referred to comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s comment that Puerto Rico is a ‘floating island of garbage’ and appeared to expand it to all Trump supporters.

‘The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters,’ he said.

The White House immediately went into damage control mode and said Biden was referring to a single supporter – Hinchcliffe – and, in the official White House transcript, the word is transcribed as ‘supporter’s.’

From the official White House transcript:

And just the other day, a speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a ‘floating island of garbage.’ Well, let me tell you something. I don’t — I — I don’t know the Puerto Rican that — that I know — or a Puerto Rico, where I’m fr- — in my home state of Delaware, they’re good, decent, honorable people. The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporter’s –– his — his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American.

Vice President Kamala Harris revealed in an interview that she would continue to rely on Venn diagrams if elected president.

Harris admitted she has an ‘obsession’ with Venn diagram visual aid to podcaster Brené Brown.

She oddly brought up the elementary school-level tool when asked to explain her leadership style.

With less than a week to go until election day, presidential historian dubbed the ‘Nostradamus’ of polling experts Allan Lichtman has remained staunch on his prediction that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will become the next US president.

The American University professor, 77, is known for fashioning his own election model that has correctly forecast every presidential winner since 1984.

Last month, he garnered a wave of criticism when he revealed that Harris had met what he believed to be the critical objectives for victory.

Now, speaking to CTV News, Lichtman said that his prediction ‘does not change with respect to the ephemeral events of the campaign’.

The Supreme Court issued a ruling striking down a lower court ruling that would have kept ‘noncitizens’ on voter rolls in Virginia.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin called it a ‘victory’ for ‘commonsense and fairness’ with just six days to go to the election.

That will likely spell a long, drawn out round of mail-in ballot counts and even recounts depending on the state.

If any of the seven battlegrounds are close, counting could drag on well into November 6 and beyond.

Sarah Ewall-Wice, Senior U.S. Political Reporter:

Fresh off her closing argument speech in Washington, Vice President Kamala Harris, 60, is heading out for a swing through three battleground states today.

She will start her packed day with a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, before heading to Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

The visit comes as two new polls by WRAL-TV and Elon University show the race in North Carolina tied. The latest Pennsylvania polling also shows the race in the Keystone State tied.

Trump, 78, will be hitting Rocky Mount, North Carolina, for a rally and then Green Bay, Wisconsin.

The vice president will wrap up her day in Madison, Wisconsin with a rally including musical performances from Gracie Abrams, Mumford & Sons, Remi Wolf, and Matt Berninger and Aaron Dessner from the National.

Recent polling shows the Badger State also in a dead heat. Fresh off her closing argument speech in Washington, Vice President Kamala Harris is heading out for a swing through three battleground states today.

She will start her packed day with a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina before heading to Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

The vice president will wrap up her day in Madison, Wisconsin with a rally including musical performances from Gracie Abrams, Mumford & Sons, Remi Wolf, and Matt Berninger and Aaron Dessner from the National.

By Geoff Earle, Deputy U.S. Political Editor

Donald Trump launched new allegations of ‘cheating’ Wednesday in the final days before Election Day. As he did in 2020, Trump raised questions about the integrity of the vote before most Americans go to the polls.

‘Pennsylvania is cheating, and getting caught, at large scale levels rarely seen before. REPORT CHEATING TO AUTHORITIES. Law Enforcement must act, NOW!’ Trump wrote Tuesday.

‘Stay in line, don’t let anyone turn you away and silence your voice. We need to make it TOO BIG TO RIG!’ Trump wrote in another post. ‘Law Enforcement is all over the GREAT Commonwealth of Pennsylvania looking at, and for, VOTER FRAUD!’ he wrote in another yesterday.

Trump has repeatedly warned at his rallies that rivals were going to ‘cheat,’ in a move that his rivals predict is a prelude to challenging election results that don’t go his way.

Ivanka, 43, previously said that she was stepping back from her father’s political work to ‘prioritize my children and the private life we are creating as a family’, after skipping the launch of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign.

But with less than a week to go, and following the fallout of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally where a controversial comedian made a series of racist jokes that alienated Republicans and infuriated Democrats, she was asked whether she would join her father’s cause to bolster him at the eleventh hour.

Donald Trump ‘jumped’ on a blonde 6′ 1′ pageant queen, ‘grabbing her body everywhere’ after inviting her up to a suite at his New York hotel for ‘a private talk’, the woman has claimed exclusively to DailyMail.com.

And it was only because of her height and strength that Beatrice Keul could fight off the former president, who is now hoping for a second term in the White House.

‘I think my size saved me,’ Keul said of the 1993 incident in the Plaza Hotel, which Trump owned at the time.

Keul, 53, is coming forward now because she discovered all the documentation for her trip from her home in Zurich, Switzerland sitting in a box when she prepared to move.

There has still been no official response From Kamala Harris’ campaign in the wake of Joe Biden’s ‘garbage’ gaffe.

When the president appeared to call Donald Trump supporters ‘garbage’ on Tuesday night it overshadowed his vice president’s closing campaign event in Washington D.C.

The resulting furor torpedoed what the Harris campaign had expected to be blanket media coverage of her final argument against Trump.

While the White House has sought to downplay Biden’s comment the Harris campaign has remained silent.

About 475 damaged ballots were retrieved from a ballot box that was burned early Monday in Vancouver, Washington, as police condemn the act as a ‘direct attack on American democracy’.

Clark County Auditor Greg Kimsey said workers on Wednesday will begin searching through the damaged ballots for voter information in order to contact them about getting a new ballot.

He said officials believe that although damaged, the workers will be able to pull voter information from the ballots.

By Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter in Allentown, Pennsylvania

Donald Trump said President Joe Biden calling his supporters ‘garbage’ is worse than Hillary Clinton’s 2016 ‘basket of deplorable’ remarks.

Trump was speaking to thousands of fans gathered in Allentown, Pennsylvania , Tuesday evening with just seven days left to the election.

The 81-year-old commander-in-chief was responding to a comedian at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday comparing Puerto Rico to a ‘floating island of garbage.’

Biden said on a campaign zoom Tuesday night: ‘The only garbage I see floating out there is his [Trump’s] supporters.’

It immediately sparked backlash from MAGA fans, including Trump himself who addressed it in the middle of his rally.

‘Wow, that’s what [Biden] says… garbage. I think it’s worse [than deplorables],’ he fired back.

The 81-year-old commander-in-chief’s bombshell gaffe evoked memories of Hillary Clinton’s infamous dismissal of Trump voters as ‘deplorables’ in 2016, which contributed to her shock defeat.

It came as Harris was hoping to capture the nation’s full attention with a carefully planned rally in front of the White House for 75,000 Democrats one week before Election Day. Harris used the event on Tuesday night to make her final case, declaring she would be a unifying president ‘for all Americans’.

Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are virtually tied in Michigan, according to a new poll released just six days until the 2024 presidential election.

A Suffolk/USA Today survey has Trump with a tiny 0.4 percentage point advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris – 47.4 percent to 47 percent.

Michigan is one of the seven swing states vital to clinching a victory on November 5. The others are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The results between the candidates are well within the Michigan poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error.

Of the 500 Michiganders surveyed in the latest, 1.4 percent still say they will cast their ballots for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. And the same percentage say they will vote for Green Oarty Candidate Jill Stein.

Senator Tim Scott told DailyMail.com that black male voters have been lied to by Democrats for years.

And that’s why enthusiasm for Donald Trump among them has never been higher, he says.

With less than one week until Election Day, the South Carolina Republican has been traveling around the country attending events with black voters in swing states on behalf of the ex-president and Republican Senate candidates.

During his travels he frequently hears frustration from these men who express that they feel duped by the Democrats.

‘What I hear oftentimes is that “the Democrats have a lied to us,”‘ Scott revealed to DailyMail.com.

Katelyn Caralle, Senior U.S. Political Reporter

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz made rounds on morning news shows on Wednesday to do damage control after President Joe Biden called Donald Trump’s supporters ‘garbage.’

But the Democratic vice presidential nominee insisted that Biden’s botched response to the insulting comments does not under cut the party’s message of unity.

‘You compared Trump supporters to Nazis. Biden called them “garbage.” Hillary called them “deplorables.” Doesn’t that undercut your fake “unity” message?’ CBS Mornings host Tony Dokoupil asked Walz.

The governor replied: ‘No, certainly not.’

The whole debacle was sparked when a comedian at Trump’s Mardison Square Garden on Sinday called Puerto Rico a ‘floating pile of garbage,’ sparking ire from the Hispanic community as a whole.

But then Biden handed Republicans a huge assist in the matter when he said on Tuesday that ‘the only garbage I see floating out there is [Trump] supporters.’

Hours after being released from federal prison, Donald Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon said he had a warning for the Biden family: Pardon Hunter before he has to serve a sentence that could destroy him.

‘I don’t think Hunter Biden would last 48 hours in a federal prison,’ he told DailyMail.com

‘I think that it would be too much for him, particularly with his previous drug addiction.’

Poll aggregator Nate Silver has warned that Joe Biden is ‘one of Kamala Harris’ biggest impediments to victory’ after the president referred to Donald Trump supporters as ‘garbage’.

Silver, the founder of poll analytics site FiveThirtyEight, suggested that Biden will be largely responsible if the Democrat does not win the White House next week.

He claimed that Harris, 60, has done a ‘pretty good job’ at rallying support ahead of what could be one of the closest races in history, despite ‘Biden doing everything possible to f**k it up’.